ABSTRACT
The ques t ion of China ' s status as a "great p o w e r " i n w o r l d po l i t i cs seems e lementary enough , yet the answer is far f r o m obv ious . D u r i n g the C o l d War, assessments of China ' s na t iona l p o w e r were l eg ion , r a n g i n g f r o m C h i n a as a "s leeping d r a g o n " to an a sp i r ing " supe rpower candida te" to an actual great power , the m u c h - t o u t e d ba lanc ing t h i r d force i n g loba l t r i a n gu la r geopol i t ics . I n the w a k e of the T iananmen inc iden t i n 1989, m a n y c o m m i t t e d the fal lacy of p remature pess imism, p o r t e n d i n g a d e c l i n i n g or co l laps ing China . A n d yet i n the pos t -Co ld War a n d pos t -Tiananmen years, especially since the mid-1990s, the rise of C h i n a has sudden ly be come a l l th ings i n the eyes of theorists and prac t i t ioners of in t e rna t iona l po l i t i cs-a fait accompl i , a m y t h , an uns toppable t r end , and a theoret ical puzz l e . 1
O n the one h a n d , m a n y argue tha t the rea l i ty of r i s i n g Chinese p o w e r is here a n d n o w , as cer ta in as a n y t h i n g can be i n the t r ans i t ion f r o m a b i p o lar to a m u l t i p o l a r w o r l d . T h r o u g h the p r i s m of "offensive rea l i sm," John Mearshe imer pess imis t ica l ly predicts that China ' s emergence as a reg ional hegemon i n Nor theas t As i a w i l l be the mos t dangerous scenario the U n i t e d States m i g h t face i n the ear ly twen ty - f i r s t century, w a r n i n g a n d p r o d d i n g Wash ing ton to do w h a t i t can to reverse or s l o w the rise of C h i n a . 2 W r i t i n g i n 1997, R ichard Bernstein a n d Ross M u n r o p red ic ted w i t h confidence that " w i t h i n a f ew years, C h i n a w i l l be the largest economy i n the w o r l d . " 3 O n the other h a n d , some s t i l l argue tha t Chinese p o w e r a n d
Reprinted by permission. Originally published as "China's Path to Great Power Status i n the Globalization Era," Asian Perspective, 27:1, (2003): 35-75.
