ABSTRACT
This chapter examines the nature and function of scientific prediction, in order to ascertain whether successful forecast requires the knowledge of causal laws, as is usually assumed, and whether successful prediction is both the meaning and the criterion of causality, as is often maintained. It shows that there are several kinds of prediction, scientific prophecy by means of causal laws being only one of them—whence both the traditional and the positivistic solutions of the problem of the relevance of causality to prediction, and vice versa, are inadequate. The consideration of causal laws affords a clear illustration of the difference in kind between scientific explanation and scientific prediction. Successful prediction is of course verified by means of observation, experiment, and artificial reproduction. A popular argument against the scientific character of anthropology, sociology, history, and related disciplines is that sociohistorical sciences are seldom capable of predicting.
