ABSTRACT
This chapter explores that the return of significant violence to a conflict that had previously subsided will be termed a "conflict recurrence". It shows that the risks of conflict recurrence in countries that have recently emerged from active conflict pose one of the most serious threats to the downward trend in worldwide conflict that began when the Cold War ended. To assess why the downward trend has stalled, it will be helpful to disaggregate the data and look more carefully at trends in new conflict onsets, conflict recurrences, and terminations. The year 2005 is a striking example of how conflict recurrences can affect overall global trends. To sustain a longer trend, there would have to be clear evidence that the rate of conflict terminations continues to be higher than onsets and recurrences. To sustain a longer trend, there would have to be clear evidence that the rate of conflict terminations continues to be higher than onsets and recurrences.
