ABSTRACT
On 2 4 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 8 ac r i p p l e d Soviet s a t e l l i t e c a r r y i n g an u c l e a r re· a c t o r r e e n t e r e d t h e e a r t h ' s a t m o s p h e r e over n o r t h w e s t e r n Canada a n d s c a t t e r e d r a d i o a c t i v e d e b r i s o v e r awide area. The s p a c e c r a f t was anaval reconnaissance s a t e l l i t e o f t h e t y p e t h a t t h e Soviet Union h a s u s e d f o r 1 0 y e a r s to spy o n t h e m o v e m e n t s o f t h e U.S. F l e e t . I t s d i s i n t e g r a t i o n i n t h e vicinity o f am a j o r p o p u l a t i o n c e n t e r c o u l d conceivably have b e e n c a l a m i t o u s as i t s r e a c t o r is r e p o r t e d t o have c o n t a i n e d 1 0 0 p o u n d s o f u r a n i u m 2 3 5 . F e a r f u l o f t h e r e p e r · cussions o f s u c h a n i n c i d e n t , t h e Soviets p r o v i d e d t h e t e c h n i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n re· q u e s t e d b y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s once i t h a d d e t e r m i n e d t h a t t h e s a t e l l i t e ' s o r b i t h a d b e g u n t o d e c a y . According t o a White House o f f i c i a l : " T h e real signifi· c a n c e o f t h i s e p i s o d e is t h a t this was t h e first n u c l e a r r e l a t e d ctisis in space, a n d
i t b r o u g h t f o r t h Soviet c o o p e r a t i o n a n d i n f o r m a l p r e p a r a t i o n s t o deal w i t h a p o t e n t i a l l y serious s i t u a t i o n . " 1 T h e d i s i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e S o v i e t satel·
l i t e was a t l e a s t t h e t h i r d s u c h i n c i d e n t o f i t s k i n d a n d s a t e l l i t e s are b y n o means t h e o n l y possible s o u r c e o f acci· d e n t s w i t h grave i n t e r n a t i o n a l i m p l i c a · tions. 2T h e close p r o x i m i t y o f S o v i e t a n d A m e r i c a n F l e e t s a r o u n d t h e w o r l d a n d t h e i r f r e q u e n t h a r a s s m e n t o f e a c h o t h e r carries a n even g r e a t e r p o t e n t i a l f o r as e r i o u s mishap. Nor c a n o n e a l t o g e t h e r ignore t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a n u c l e a r d i s a s t e r c a u s e d by t h e a c c i d e n t a l or u n a u t h o r i z e d launching o f amissile o r o t h e r delivery vehicle. The c h a n c e , however r e m o t e , t h a t a n y o f t h e s e m i g h t c o m e t o pass c o m p e l s us t o c o n s i d e r c a r e f u l l y t h e p o l i t i c a l r a m i f i c a · t i o n s o f serious accidents. What k i n d s o f a c c i d e n t s are likely t o lead t o a n a c u t e
c o n f r o n t a t i o n ? What kinds o f accidents are likely t o be resolved by q u i e t diplomacy? C a n we learn a n y t h i n g a b o u t accidents t h a t will enable us t o r e d u c e t h e risks t o peace associated with t h e m ? This article will explore t h e q u e s t i o n in acase s t u d y o f t h e Dogger Bank incident, t h e m o s t serious internat i o n a l crisis triggered by an a c c i d e n t i n m o d e r n times. Before proceeding with t h e s t u d y i t
is necessary t o acknowledge t h a t t h e meaning a n d o p e r a t i o n a l significance o f a c c i d e n t s are highly subjective a n d de· p e n d almost e n t i r e l y upon t h e c o n t e x t in which accidents occur. Accidents c a n be t r e a t e d as deliberate p r o v o c a t i o n s or, v i c e versa, b y any o f t h e p a r t i e s involved. The i n t e r p r e t a t i o n policymakers c h o o s e w i l l generally d e p e n d u p o n t h e i r desire t o avoid o r p r e c i p i t a t e c o n f l i c t . In e x t r e m e circumstances, t h e p a r t y
w h o has been i n j u r e d may c h o o s e to e x p l o i t an a c c i d e n t as acasus belli. To do so h e w i l l a t t e m p t to p o r t r a y the i n c i d e n t as ap r e m e d i t a t e d p r o v o c a t i o n o n t h e p a r t o f his adversary. The American response t o t h e d e s t r u c t i o n o f the b a t t l e s h i p M a i n e in Havana h a r b o r in F e b r u a r y 1 8 9 8 is acase in p o i n t . The initial o p i n i o n o f m a n y naval officers was t h a t t h e e x p l o s i o n was accidental; t h e y a t t r i b u t e d i t t o fire in acoal b u n k e r adjacent t o amagazine, thus absolving Spain o f a n y responsibility. But t h e a c c i d e n t o c c u r r e d a t atime when Spanish-American relations were severely s t r a i n e d because o f t h e festering rebellion in Cuba. A n i n f l u e n t i a l segment o f t h e American press, i n t e n t on war, p o r t r a y e d t h e explosion as an a c t o f sabotage by Spain. The subseq u e n t naval c o u r t o f i n q u i r y h e l d t h a t t h e e x p l o s i o n was e x t e r n a l l y caused. P r e s i d e n t McKinley e x p l o i t e d t h e arouseds t a t e o f public o p i n i o n t o impress u p o n the Spanish Government t h e c e r t a i n t y o f American i n t e r v e n t i o n in Cuba unless as a t i s f a c t o r y s e t t l e m e n t was r e a c h e d in t h e very near f u t u r e . As Spain proved unable t o make t h e k i n d s
D O G G E R B A N K 67
o f concessions necessary t o mollify American p u b l i c o p i n i o n , McKinley was f o r c e d t o go t o war. 3 Policymakers w h o wish t o avoid a
c o n f r o n t a t i o n m a y c h o o s e t o describe as an a c c i d e n t w h a t t h e y know t o be a d e l i b e r a t e p r o v o c a t i o n . This p l o y m a y p e r m i t t h e m t o sidestep achallenge w i t h o u t losing face o r damaging t h e i r c o u n t r y ' s bargaining r e p u t a t i o n . To succeed, i t usually requires t h e t a c i t collusion o f t h e p r o t a g o n i s t ' s leaders w h o f o r reasons o f t h e i r own also p r e f e r t o t r e a t t h e i n c i d e n t as an a c c i d e n t . The P a n a y i n c i d e n t - t h e sinking o f an American g u n b o a t o n t h e Yangtze in December 1 9 3 7 b y Japanese f i g h t e r p l a n e s - o f f e r s a n i l l u s t r a t i o n o f t h i s phen o m e n o n . Both American a n d Japanese leaders s u s p e c t e d t h a t t h e Japanese milit a r y h a d d e l i b e r a t e l y a t t a c k e d P a n a y in o r d e r t o p r o v o k e ac o n f r o n t a t i o n between t h e t w o c o u n t r i e s . A s b o t h Gove r n m e n t s wished t o avoid ac o n f r o n t a - t i o n a t t h a t t i m e t h e y agreed t o t r e a t t h e a t t a c k as a n a c c i d e n t . 4 A s t h e P a n a y i n c i d e n t suggests, t h e
n a t i o n responsible f o r ap r o v o c a t i o n may a t t e m p t t o dismiss i t as a n accid e n t . This is usually d o n e t o minimize t h e e x t e n t o f t h e challenge c o n v e y e d b y t h e p r o v o c a t i o n a n d is ac u s t o m a r y means o f explaining away such provocations as overflights c o n d u c t e d f o r purposes o f spying. I t can also be used t o disavow m o r e serious challenges as was t h e case in t h e Sussex a n d Corfu crises. The Sussex crisis developed i n response t o t h e sinking b y aGerman submarine o f aF r e n c h c h a n n e l s t e a m e r w i t h American passengers a b o a r d o n 2 4 March 1 9 1 6 . The " a c c i d e n t " o c c u r r e d because t h e German Navy, i n f u r i a t e d b y t h e i r G o v e r n m e n t ' s p o l i c y o f r e s t r i c t i n g naval o p e r a t i o n s so as n o t t o give offense t o n e u t r a l s , h a d failed t o implement p r e c a u t i o n s designed t o p r e v e n t a t t a c k s o n u n a r m e d passenger VE'ssels and h a d a c t u a l l y e n c o u r a g e d recklessness o n t h e p a r t o f submarine captains. The German G o v e r n m e n t avoided a
68 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW
break in relations with t h e United S t a t e s b y p o r t r a y i n g the a t t a c k as an u n f o r t u - n a t e a c c i d e n t a n d by agreeing t o make h e r U-boats adhere t o s t r i c t e r rules o f engagement. 5 The Corfu crisis was triggered by an
even more purposeful provocation, mines placed by Albania in t h e Corfu O l a n n e l t o discourage maritime t r a f f i c in waters she claimed t o be w i t h i n her jurisdiction. In O c t o b e r 1 9 4 6 these mines severely damaged destroyers Saumarez a n d Volage, p a r t o f alarge British force s e n t through the O l a n n e l t o c o n t e s t Albania's claim. Having swept t h e Channel a n d f o u n d i t free o f mines o n t w o earlier occasions, Britain accused Yugoslavia a n d Albania o f having subseq u e n t l y l a y e d c a p t u r e d German mines. Both c o u n t r i e s denied t h i s charge a n d anxious t o b a c k away from ac o n f r o n t a - t i o n w i t h Britain, suggested t h a t t h e destroyers h a d s t r u c k German laid mines which t h e Royal Navy h a d failed to l o c a t e o n earlier sweeps. Albania agreed to refer t h e d i s p u t e to the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Court o f Justicewhich upheld t h e British claim a n d o r d e r e d Albania t o pay c o m p e n s a t i o n . 6 True accidents rarely cause crises. Of
the many serious i n t e r n a t i o n a l accidents r e c o r d e d in this c e n t u r y only t h e Russian F1eet's b o m b a r d m e n t o f British fishing trawlers in t h e North Sea in 1 9 0 5 b r o u g h t t h e nations involved t o t h e b r i n k o f war. The failure o f most accidents t o s p a r k crises is p r o b a b l y a f u n c t i o n o f t h e i r origins; t h e y are rarely seen t o convey achallenge to which t h e aggrieved s t a t e must respond. Nor d o t h e y usually establish damaging precedents. Accidents are generally perceived as n o n r e p e a t i n g incidents which establish n o right o r e x p e c t a t i o n o n t h e p a r t o f t h e responsible p a r t y t o c a r r y o u t similar provocations in the f u t u r e . Because most accidents n e i t h e r con-
vey challenges n o r establish p r e c e d e n t s t h e i r significance is most o f t e n determined b y t h e a c t u a l damage t h e y cause and t h e political c o n t e x t i n which t h e y
occur. Before t h e nuclear age, the damage p o t e n t i a l o f accidents was sufficiently l i m i t e d f o r t h e m t o be resolved b y asimple formula. The responsible s t a t e rendered apublic apology, disclaimed any i n t e n t o f provoking an incident, a n d o f f e r e d t o pay compensation for loss o f life o r damage t o p r o p e r t y . The apology, in e f f e c t apublic a f f i r m a t i o n t h a t t h e p e r p e t r a t o r o f t h e a c c i d e n t h a d n o right or claim t o c a r r y o u t such an a c t i o n , p r o t e c t e d t h e i n t e r e s t s a n d bargaining r e p u t a t i o n o f t h e i n j u r e d s t a t e . A n apology a n d o f f e r o f c o m p e n s a t i o n was also usually sufficient t o p r o t e c t t h a t c o u n t r y ' s leaders from political recrimination. F o r the p a r t y responsible for t h e a c c i d e n t the formula resolved an awkward s t a t e o f affairs w i t h o u t u n d u e loss o f face. By
acknow~edging t h e accidental n a t u r e o f t h e incident he backed down from a challenge he never claimed t o have issued. Most accidents are still resolved
according t o this formula. Complications do sometimes arise, most freq u e n t l y t h e r e s u l t o f t h e responsible s t a t e ' s c o n c e r n t o preserve what he sees as his legal o r political prerogatives. While acknowledging t h e accidental n a t u r e o f aprovocation, agovernment may be unwilling t o apologize o r p a y c o m p e n s a t i o n because this c o u l d be i n t e r p r e t e d as an admission t h a t i t s behavior was unjustifiable. Germany, f o r example, was unwilling t o t e n d e r a formal apology t o t h e United S t a t e s f o r her sinking o f t h e L u s i t a n i a because she claimed w i t h some j u s t i f i c a t i o n t h a t t h e ship, which carried c o n t r a b a n d cargo, was an " a u x i l i a r y c r u i s e r " according to i n t e r n a t i o n a l law a n d t h u s a legitimate target f o r h e r submarines. The German Government u l t i m a t e l y satisfied t h e United States by issuing a s t a t e m e n t regretting t h e loss o f n e u t r a l life a n d agreeing to refer t h e q u e s t i o n o f c o m p e n s a t i o n t o ap o s t w a r tribunal.7A similar c o n t r o v e r s y developed in response t o t h e bombing b y the United
S t a t e s o f Soviet m e r c h a n t ships i n Haiphong h a r b o r d u r i n g t h e V i e t n a m war. Claiming t h e r i g h t t o b o m b t h e h a r b o r i n s t a l l a t i o n s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s r e j e c t e d aSoviet d e m a n d f o r a n apology, asserting t h a t all m a r i t i m e n a t i o n s h a d b e e n w a r n e d t h a t ships e n t e r e d t h e h a r b o r a t t h e i r o w n risk. 8 The d e s t r u c t i o n o f aL i b y a n a i r l i n e r over t h e Sinai b y t h e Israeli air f o r c e i n 1 9 7 2 is a n o t h e r i n s t a n c e w h e r e a n apology was s e e n t o p r e j u d i c e an a t i o n ' s i m p o r t a n t i n t e r e s t s . Israel a d m i t t e d t h a t h e r p i l o t s , s u s p e c t i n g a n a c t o f t e r r o r - ism, m i g h t have b e e n overzealous i n s h o o t i n g d o w n t h e plane b u t i n s i s t e d t h a t t h e a i r l i n e r h a d i g n o r e d i n s t r u c t i o n s t o land. F e a r i n g t h a t a n o f f e r o f comp e n s a t i o n w o u l d b e i n t e r p r e t e d as a n admission o f guilt, t h e Israeli Governm e n t o f f e r e d i n s t e a d t o give m o n e y t o t h e families o f t h e d e a d passengers f o r h u m a n i t a r i a n reasons. The o f f e r was c o u p l e d w i t h ar e n e w e d a s s e r t i o n o f Israel's r i g h t t o deal w i t h aerial intruders.9
