ABSTRACT
Probabilistic assessment of data, independent verification of new procedures, and concern over false positives are fundamental to scientific argument in every discipline. The reality of scientific method is a common understanding of probabilistic reasoning; the importance of testability, interdisciplinarity, and rationality; and an emphasis on the explanatory power of a proposed hypothesis. Probabilistic reasoning encompasses the idea that statistical laws are fundamental to scientific explanation. The most common scientific metaphors in use are the pump and the computer, and many disparate systems are described in terms of these metaphors. The strength of a scientific theory is its ability to explain what happened. The criteria for basic assumptions should be ensuring scientific validity; minimizing significant errors in estimating risks; maximizing incentives for safety research; and creating an orderly, predictable, and trustworthy process. In addition to the inability of a truthful scientist to say whether a proffered hypothesis is “probable,” the language of scientific conclusions poses another problem for judges.
