Estimating production potentials: expert bias in applied decision making
A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non-experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non-experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross-domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modelling.