ABSTRACT
The driving force in the development of future air traffic management systems is the need to further increase air system capacity to meet predicted increases in air traffic. Conventional approaches first estimate the air traffic controller’s workload as the basis for predicting system capacity, based on certain assumptions. A problem can lie with the assumptions made and the nature of the extrapolation, particularly where non-observable cognitive factors are involved. The MAlvern Capacity Estimate (MACE) is a novel technique which asks controllers to directly estimate their sustained and peak traffic handling capacity based on their existing task loading. Initial results using the technique have been encouraging. MACE has been partly validated in a series of air traffic control simulation trials, and has been well received by controllers. There remains a requirement for MACE to be calibrated more extensively and to be validated against existing workload estimation and capacity modelling techniques.
