‘Chapter V. Retaliation and Other Indirect Consequences’, Board of Trade Economic Group Report on Long-Term Problems and Consequences of Failure to Approve ITO, 8 July 1947, PRO, BT 11/3544, pp. 69–74.

Most countries, other than the United States, that found their exports curtailed in this way would have to restrict their imports, and they might be forced in self-defence to make their own preferential arrangements with other sets of countries; all of which would reduce, directly or indirectly, the demand for British exports. South Africa too, is greatly dependent on her gold exports, which pay for the great bulk of her imports. Apart from Canada and the gold producing countries, many other Empire countries are greatly dependent on the US market. The potential loss of export markets in those countries is considerably greater than the possible gains resulting from preferential arrangements with Western European countries. Empire countries, excluding South Africa and Canada imported 267 million dollars worth from the US in 1938. The making of preferential arrangements between British and a group of other countries may have certain unfavourable effects which must be set against the direct gains to British Trade.