ABSTRACT
This chapter is of particular interest. The case is ongoing and ‘live’, is a highly featured aspect of British politics and the eventual outcome has long term ramifications for the entire UK. The chapter shows Britain to be a major EU power, though one somewhat disengaged from some EU developments, especially around the common currency even though holding an anomalously important position in aspects of EU finance. Brexit has major impacts on the main political parties as well as some connectivity to international trends out-with Europe, including with forces on the political right in the USA. The key negotiating strategies of UK and EU are outlined, though the former has been delimited due to polarisation in the governing Conservative Party; only in July 2018 did the UK produce a negotiating document outlining a plan for its preferred future relationship with the EU. The key issues and complexities surrounding UK–EU negotiations are outlined in some detail. Key problem areas, both immediate and longer term post-withdrawal, are analysed and these include some ‘Brexit dilemmas’ over the balance between sovereignty, market access and control of immigration and labour movement, and strains and tensions in the UK’s union. A range of potential political outcomes over the short–medium term is also identified and with these outcomes especially interesting given the dynamic and interplay of a number of contingent variables.
