ABSTRACT
When US President Jimmy Carter decided to place a partial embargo on grain sales to the Soviet Union in January 1980 to punish the Soviets for their military invasion of Afghanistan, the potential impact of the embargo seemed large. The eventual failure of the 1980-81 grain embargo to reduce Soviet grain imports enough to trigger a 'distress slaughter' of livestock herds is therefore an instructive development. Since the embargo failed under circumstances which were uniquely favourable to its success, we may tentatively conclude that an embargo policy adopted under any less favourable circumstances will fail as well. In the process of making their original embargo decision, US officials spent little time considering the possibility that other suppliers would nullify its effects by stepping in to meet Soviet grain import needs. In fact, the President was in no position to offer such reassurances, since high level consultations had not yet been undertaken.
