ABSTRACT
On the 5th October 2011, the 3, 351 TEU containership MV Rena ran aground on the Astrolabe Reef whilst sailing to Tauranga, New Zealand. The break-up of the vessel, and subsequent oil spill, became one of New Zealand’s most significant maritime accidents in recent years. Whilst the investigation detailed the factors which contributed to the grounding, no analysis was conducted into the disposition of navigation in the vicinity of the reef. This paper analyses historical AIS data both before and after the grounding and considers two issues; firstly, the extent to which the MV Rena’s track deviated from established shipping routes and, therefore, whether a credible risk of grounding was evident. Secondly, the effectiveness of risk controls implemented in response by the local authorities to prevent the incident from reoccurring. The analysis in this case study will improve the understanding of the relationship between vessel traffic flow and grounding risk to aid in the prevention of similar incidents worldwide. Furthermore, the results provide important lessons to researchers in the uncertainties of building risk models from the relationship between vessel traffic analysis and historical incident data.
