ABSTRACT

This chapter traces the European Union's (EU) historical evolution as a climate leader and ponders its future by sketching some imaginable but accentuated scenarios. It focuses on positive leadership, which aims at increasing the level of climate policy ambition and pushing for outcomes that promote a global good. The chapter outlines that the EU strengthened its leadership performance by venturing into multiple leadership types and fortifying its initial cognitive leadership with improved exemplary and entrepreneurial leadership. It explains the contours of contemporary EU climate leadership before pondering possible future scenarios in a world that has been rocked by numerous shocks, most notably the economic crisis, rising populism and isolationism, and the election of Donald Trump as US President. One possible future scenario could be a collapse of internal EU ambition as a result of Brexit, economic concerns taking precedence and laggard member states gaining influence.