ABSTRACT
Chapter 4 contains the central rational choice analysis of the research. This work envisions two main avenues for China in the context of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute. On the one hand, Beijing can seek to fulfil the promise of its ‘good neighbour’ policy by pursuing peaceful resolution options. The key benefits of this approach would be the establishment of de jure sovereignty over the disputed islands and that it would show China to be a mature and responsible member of the international community willing to support its prevailing norms. The main drawback of this avenue is its low feasibility. Whether pursuing a binding or non-binding approach China has a low chance of success. On the other hand, China could adopt a more realist policy approach seeking hegemony through emphasizing various military options. The main benefit of this approach would be feasibility: the military balance of power is more favourable towards China than the diplomatic one. However, this avenue is adversely affected by high costs and their ability to only establish de facto sovereignty, which is a less secure form of possession compared to de jure sovereignty. In the absence of optimal resolution options, the chapter makes the argument that China should adopt a policy of delaying. While this would not provide a resolution to the dispute, it would allow China to avoid the costs of an unfavourable resolution. Beijing could also utilize the time to improve the feasibility of potential resolution options. Delaying is possible as there are no issues attached to the islands that require an immediate response.
