ABSTRACT
Chapter 10 applies the United Nations (UN) projection of China’s population and the Bayesian method for fertility projections to identify the pattern of low fertility and population changes, as well as making future population projections. The Bayesian model for probabilistic fertility projection shows that low fertility in China is going to be a long-term trend. According to the UN projection, rapid population aging has become a well-established trend. Whether the low fertility trend could be reversed is the key to the future of China’s population.
