ABSTRACT
This chapter illustrates technical procedures in the two-phase simulation-forecast study. In the first phase of simulation and projection, the birth-order-specific parameters for parity progression (PPP) used in the study was actually just an initial parameter for iterative courses since the simulation of 1990 through 2010 was de facto limited by the population below age 20 and their corresponding life spans. In the second phase of simulation and projection, several scenarios of fertility projections are designed. The study employed the sex-age-specific population structures in the sixth census as the target of simulations, first simulated population development from 1990 to 2000, and then performed multi-scenario population projections from 2010 to 2100. With the Fourth National Population Census in 1990 used as start time, and the Sixth National Population Census in 2010, used as the end, simulations were performed to obtain the demographic trend and the corresponding population coefficients between 1990 and 2010 in China.
