ABSTRACT
Chapter 7 studies the changes in the number of births by women of various age groups based on the 1% population survey data in 2005, and presents an analysis of the ‘only child’ population with the unique data collected in the survey. It shows that numbers of births vary remarkably among women of different age groups. The younger the women, the smaller the number of births. On the other hand, the proportion of only-children in the population under age 30 has seen a steady increase in every younger cohort. This chapter also makes estimates about the total number of only-children in 2005. It shows that the fertility rate in China indeed has been dropping, and has come close to the target rate set by the family planning policy. Consequently, it is impossible for the TFR to have remained at the same level over the years. The findings indicate that the 1.8 TFR set by the government agencies has been out of touch with reality and is unreasonable and implausible.
