ABSTRACT
This chapter provides results from econometrically estimating six alternative specifications of the basic model of wetland conversion and farmland abandonment. It assesses several estimated models by comparing their accuracy in simulating actual changes in forested wetland acreages in the Alluvial Plain during the sample time period, and on this basis, one of the specifications is selected for use in the remainder of the analysis. The models with the lognormal distribution of heterogeneity were judged, on theoretical grounds, to be superior to the models based upon normal or uniform distributions. The chapter assesses the historic effects of major economic, hydrologic, and climatic factors on forested wetland conversion and farmland abandonment in the Alluvial Plain through a series of factual and counterfactual simulations. Of the factors considered in the econometric model of forested wetland conversion and farmland abandonment, the flood protection and drainage provision afforded by Federal projects had the largest impact on net changes in forested acreage.
