ABSTRACT
The development of programming is but one particular suggested approach by which the economist might contribute to the formulation of relevant strategies for agricultural development. This chapter proposes policy formulation based on diagnosis and prediction, rather than on generalizations about the lessons of history. It also proposes the research on diagnosis and prediction aiming at immediately useful results and the long-run improvement of the techniques. There have been agronomists pursuing scientific investigation at research institutes and university colleges throughout Africa, Asia, and elsewhere for many decades, and their impact on traditional agricultures has generally been very disappointing. Improved seed, fertilizers, and insecticides might increase long-run returns by more than long-run costs but, in the year when costs are not covered, the loss and debt incurred may be very considerably greater than was conceivable under the traditional system. Subsistence systems are low-cost systems: commercial systems may be high-cost systems.
