ABSTRACT

In this chapter, the author summarizes the main features of a method for studying alternative development policies which has been tested by him and his collaborators in exploratory studies of Southern Italy, Argentina and Israel. He gives the principal elements of the aggregate model that was used and the nature of the results achieved. The author focuses on the strategic choices to be made in a development program and the relation between the aggregate model and more detailed sectoral analyses. A policy model should specify the various factors limiting growth and the ways in which they can be modified by the instruments of government policy. In the absence of prior knowledge of the relative valuation of these objectives, the economist cannot determine an optimum program. At best, he can present the alternatives in such a way as to focus political attention on the problem of determining a social choice among a limited number of relevant alternatives.