ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses Six Scenarios for 1980. The improved situation in Europe has made it possible for the Soviet Union to transfer to the Far East half of the forces stationed in Europe in 1971, so that by 1980 about three-quarters of the Soviet forces are concentrated along the Chinese border. The Kremlin watchers report that the attacks on Sino-Fascism in the Soviet press have suddenly ceased. Japan, ruled by a nationalist-socialist coalition, pursues a delicate balancing act between China and the Soviet Union, trying to offend neither and to expand trade with both. The Sino-American rapprochement continues and the Soviet Union fails to make further progress in Western Europe. Manchuria and Sinkiang gradually fall into the Soviet sphere of influence, Japan establishes close contacts with the Shanghai Government, whereas the United States promises its support to Canton. The American Government imposes new and higher tariff barriers; stringent economy measures are introduced.
