ABSTRACT
Critics often assert in the aftermath of genocidal violence that there was no shortage of "early warnings," meaning that local observers and country experts "knew" that some kind of serious conflict was imminent. Risk assessment should identify potential cases of genocide early enough to prompt early remedial action. Factors that contribute to the likely onset of genocides are identified prior to assessing risk and are based on existing theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on the preconditions of past genocides. A number of Western governments have developed risk assessment and early warning systems to support post-Cold War policies of developmental and humanitarian assistance. For all early warners the ultimate goal is prevention of conflict through early detection. Howard Adelman is a prominent proponent of early warning through case studies. The International Crisis Group is the largest and best-funded private organization working on conflict risk assessment and early warning.
