ABSTRACT
The economic benefit is assessed in terms of the impact that commercialization of a particular energy-technology would have on the total 60-year cost of the United States energy supply system. The security benefit is measured in terms of the reduction in crude oil imports. Research and development planners face the exceedingly difficult task of trying to forecast four interrelated parameters: project cost, time of project completion, performance of the project's product, and the worth of the project's product once developed. The simulation of the sequence of commercial investment decisions requires that a new energy-technology compete with both existing technologies and other new technologies as well. The assumed goal, or objective, represented in the model is minimization of the present value of the cost of the United States energy supply system over a 60-year period. The model, in effect, explores the impact of the introduction of alternative energy conversion technologies on this cost.
