ABSTRACT
This introduction presents an overview of the key concepts discussed in the subsequent chapters of this book. The book advocates that should 'always draw a picture before and after analysing data.' It discusses how we can use Monte Carlo Simulation to model and analyse Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty variation. The book warns about the dangers of the much-used Risk Factoring or Expected Value Technique. It discusses and demonstrates how it is often innocently but ignorantly abused, to quantify risk contingency budgets. The book discusses better ways to do this using a variation on the same simple concept. It discusses Queueing Theory and how we might use it in support of achievable solutions where we have random arisings against which we need to develop a viable estimate. The book also discusses what we mean by a Memoryless System and how with Monte Carlo Simulation we can generate meaningful solutions or options.
