ABSTRACT
In some organisations they take a ‘swings and roundabouts’ approach to Risk Contingency … that everything will work itself out on average. A technique in popular use is that of the ‘Factored Value’ or ‘Expected Value’, in which we simply multiply the ‘central value’ of the Risk variables’ 3-point range by the corresponding Probability of Occurrence. This includes Baseline Uncertainty with a probability of 100%. However, the popularity of a technique is probably more of an indicator of its simplicity than its appropriateness.
