ABSTRACT
To appreciate where Du Pont is today, it
INTERFACES 22: 6 November-December 1992 (pp. 84-93)
is valuable to review its history with D&RA. While most of the growth in the use of D&RA has occurred since 1986, 20 years ago the company's internal publica tions first referred to decision analysis (DA). A 1971 Du Pont venture analysis handbook contained the makings of an in fluence diagram (Figure 1)—consistent with the theory of working back from de cision criteria (in this case economic) to the critical variables that need to be resolved. Uncertainty was also supposed to be incor porated into analyses, using Monte Carlo techniques to develop probability distribu tions for venture-present value. The man ual went even further, recommending the data be presented in such formats as "tor nado" sensitivity charts and histograms.
