ABSTRACT

Whereas the previous chapter documented factors associated with variations in vote shares at initial and end-point time periods, this chapter focuses upon the dynamic of vote share changes between initial and ending conditions for PAN, PRI and other parties in presidential, senatorial and representative elections. Following the methodology of chapter four, the same ten models were calibrated to capture the effects of different sets of variables on PAN, PRI and other parties’ votes. The difference is that the dependent variable is measured as the vote share change between initial and ending conditions and the independent variables are measured as changes in literacy levels, in gross state product shares, in urbanization, in hierarchical level, in population potential, in relative location and in the proportion of the dialectically monolingual population. The dummy variables for oil, border, cardinal, littoral and regions remained, of course, the same.