ABSTRACT
This chapter analyses the effects of Polish accession to the European Union for agriculture using simulations with the European Simulation Model (ESIM). It explores simulation results of some scenarios that extend the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to polish agriculture. Knowledge of the scope and nature of the consequences of extending the CAP to polish agriculture is essential for those who are involved in the negotiation process and for those who would be affected by the changes. Expectations of increases in agricultural output in Poland due to increased incentives under the CAP cause fear among farmers of present Member States that there may be market destabilisation and income losses. Agriculture in Poland may benefit from policy that stimulates growth, but not from policy which leads to stabilisation. The budgetary spending for Poland's accession, which is calculated by ESIM, would amount to around 1.9 billion ECU in 2005 in the Unreformed CAP Scenario.
