ABSTRACT

The rise of China does not have to trigger a wrenching hegemonic transition. The US–Chinese power transition can be very different from those of the past because China faces an international order that is fundamentally different from those that past rising states confronted. China is well on its way to becoming formidable global power. China's military spending has increased at an inflation-adjusted rate of over 18 percent a year, and its diplomacy has extended its reach not just in Asia but also in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Indeed, whereas the Soviet Union rivaled the US as military competitor only, China is emerging as both a military and an economic rival—heralding a profound shift in the distribution of global power. The key thing for US leaders to remember is that it may be possible for China to overtake the US alone, but it is less likely that China will ever manage to overtake the Western order.