ABSTRACT
This chapter offers a theory of how ethnic wars end, and proposes an intervention strategy based on it. The theory rests on two insights: First, in ethnic wars both hypernationalist mobilization rhetoric and real atrocities harden ethnic identities to the point that cross-ethnic political appeals are unlikely to be made and even less likely to be heard. Second, intermingled population settlement patterns create real security dilemmas that intensify violence, motivate ethnic "cleansing," and prevent de-escalation unless the groups are separated. Stable resolutions of ethnic civil wars are possible, but only when the opposing groups are demographically separated into defensible enclaves. In ethnic civil wars, military operations are decisive. Attrition matters because the side's mobilization pools are separate and can be depleted. Many ethnic civil wars lead to the complete victory of one side and the forcible suppression of the other. Many analysts of ethnic conflict question the economic and military viability of partitioned states.
