ABSTRACT
Whereas in the previous chapter we discussed the pattern of security cooperation between Uzbekistan and Russia and found that Uzbekistan aligned both towards and away from Russia during the decade, this chapter examines more specifically the relationship between internal threats to Karimov’s regime and Uzbek alignment patterns. The IT/ED framework suggests that the more CIS leaders are threatened by internal threats, the more likely a leader is to adopt a strong pro-Russian alignment. That is, when threatened CIS leaders turn to Moscow for both direct and indirect assistance. However, if leaders face few internal threats or are able to eliminate them over time, then the necessity of a strong pro-Russian alignment is significantly lower. Based on the IT/ED framework, a leader would then be constrained only by the extent of their economic dependence on Russia, which if high could limit a leader’s ability to adopt a more independent alignment.
