ABSTRACT

Population growth and size can inhibit development progress. The demographic transitions of both China and India have typically been placed within the context of this standard and widely noted demographic transition model. Classical demographic transition theory suggests that declines in fertility arrive concomitantly with urbanization and industrialization. However, fertility declines have occurred in China, India, and other Asian countries without the large degrees of urbanization and industrialization that characterized fertility transitions in Europe. The Chinese economy has been one of the world’s fastest growing when measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product, growing 2.5 times, in real terms, in the period 1985 to 1995. In India, the history of development and population dynamics since independence, has been characterized by a very gradual transition towards lower birth rates and fertility rates, and slow to moderate, stable economic growth. These gradual transitions have been punctuated by several subtle changes in economic policies and family planning strategies.