ABSTRACT
Even though threat to the access of Gulf oil is relatively long-term, its specific nature has frequently changed, so that we may speak of new threats to oil access. The new forms of existing threats should be analyzed not only in terms of the capacities of actors to inflict harm or engage in military action, but also in terms of the evolving strategic context. Recent security strategies applied in the Gulf must be taken into consideration when searching for future continuities and discontinuities in security threats. The basic geological fact is that 70 per cent of proven oil reserves are in the Middle East – so the geostrategy of oil is likely to remain pretty much the same for the next two decades. There are three possible methods of warfare for the use of Iranian force: strikes with ballistic missiles and WMD; a war of attrition against the US Navy and trade in the Persian Gulf; and terrorism.
