chapter  11
10 Pages

A Look into the Future

Thepurposeofthischapteristodepictsomekeyvariableswhichimpacttheshape ofthealliancingsceneofthefuture.Ourviewsareinlinewithpastresearch, whichhasshownthatwhenthereisahighdegreeofuncertaintyinthefutureofan industry,firmswishtokeeptheiroptionsopenasmuchaspossible.Itseemsthat airlinemanagerstypicallyconsiderfurtherconsolidationtobeinevitable,butwant topreservetheircapabilitytostandaloneincasethemovetowardsconsolidationis blockedbyauthoritiesorbytheconflictinginterestsofmembers.Thefutureof alliancingislikelytobeshapedprimarilybytwoforces,externalandinternal. Externally,forinstancethestandwhichregulatoryauthoritiestakeoncompetition issuesandgovernmentsubsidieswillinfluencetheneedfor,andextentof,cooperativeagreements.Internally,thecharacterofthesemultilateralnetworkswill beverymuchshapedbykeyactors'perceptionsofalliancingandtheirsubsequent enactmentofcooperation.Thischapteremphasisestheinternalvariablesbecause, first,muchoftheexternalfactorsarebeyondthecontrolofairlinemanagement, andsecond,becausetheexternaloneshavebeenwellresearchedanddocumented bypastresearch.Also,theexaminationofthevariablesinternaltoaprocessis closertotheverythemeofthisbook,managingstrategicairlinealliances.