ABSTRACT
The various contributors to this volume make clear that the prospects for China's "Peaceful Rise" are contingent on a variety of international factors . Needless to say, it also is dependent on China's ability to manage its complex relationship with Japan. Unfortunately, Sino-Japanese political relations are extremely frosty these days. One problem is history. Further aggravating relations is Japan's pursuit of a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, which China opposes. In addition, China and Japan seem locked in a competition for friends in South and Southeast Asia. Two other important sources of frictions are the Sino-Japanese dispute over ownership of the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands and their quarrel over the delimitation of the East China Sea. 2
Analysts assessing the prospects for China's peaceful rise must pay attention to these problems because international relations scholars have incontrovertibly shown that boundary disputes are explosive. 3 Indeed, in China's specific case, statistical analyses reveal that it is most prone to use force when territorial issues are at stake.4 As far as island and maritime disputes themselves are concerned, episodes such as
* I would like to thank Joseph Y.S. Cheng, Robert Gamer, Suj ian Guo, Greg Moore, and Srini Sitaraman for their feedback on an earlier version of this chapter. I also would like to thank Mikiko Fuse for her research assistance.
