ABSTRACT

Stable and sustainable growth in grain production is thought to be of fundamental importance for food security in China where farmland is scarce and the large population continues to grow, although at a decreasing rate. In the late 1990s, the Chinese grain market situation changed from a long-term deficit to nearly full self-sufficiency, which had at once brought an optimistic view on future grain security in China. However, the continuous decrease of domestic grain production since 1998 coupled with rapidly-reduced grain stocks-especially climbing domestic prices since 2003-has triggered new nation-wide concerns about future grain supplies in China. The key question being raised in political and academic circles is whether grain production can keep pace with expanding demand.