ABSTRACT
A common statement made about effective leaders is they think downstream. Peoples’ ability to think downstream, however, depends on their skill in forecasting. Although the existence and significance of forecasting skill has been questioned, in recent years it has become apparent that differential forecasting skills are a powerful, key determinant of leader performance. In the present effort, a model describing forecasting skill is presented. Subsequently, the variables influencing forecasting performance in leadership positions are described, including both objective and social tasks that must be executed by leaders. Moreover, we argue that leaders must actively seek to create conditions where effective forecasting becomes possible. The implications of these observations for the assessment and development of leaders is discussed.
