ABSTRACT
The integration process in Europe was prompted by an initial commitment by France and Germany to jointly support collaboration rather than confrontation. The creation of the European Union (EU) and its initial progress were supported by this agreement. The ongoing Brexit process discloses that members that have lagged in their commitment to ever closer union may choose to leave the EU and shift regulatory decisions back to their national governments. Parity and dissatisfaction can lead to severe conflict and power asymmetry and dissatisfaction can lead to limited conflict. Currently, tensions in EU-Russia relations continue despite uncertainty regarding the US position. It is not likely therefore that the status quo will improve in the next few years sufficiently to anticipate cooperation between the EU and Russia. Power transition is an aggregate model that accounts for the structural preconditions for integration. Such aggregate models provide a long-term assessment of the likelihood of future stability but cannot provide short-term predictions impending salient issues.
