ABSTRACT

China’s GDP growth rate shows many different types of cyclical fluctuations. Its short-term and mid-term fluctuations have relatively larger amplitudes and are mainly influenced by external factors. Its mid-to-long-term fluctuation amplitude is continuously declining and tends to converge. Its long-term fluctuation has continuously increasing cyclical peak and trough values, and its dynamic equilibrium shows a trend of cyclical decline. The cyclical fluctuations of the GDP growth rate are jointly determined by various demand factors such as investment, household consumption, import, export and industrial inventory. Among them, household consumption is the most important factor. Export has a greater influence on the cyclical fluctuations of the economic growth rate than investment, while import and industrial inventory have an important effect of inhibiting the cyclical fluctuations of the GDP growth rate.