ABSTRACT
Indirect trade between Taiwan and mainland China via Hong Kong (hereafter Taiwan-China two-way trade or across-the-strait trade) has grown rapidly since China adopted the open-door policy in 1979. Taiwanese-made products reexported through Hong Kong to China (hereafter exports of Taiwan to China) totaled only U.S.$20 million in 1979. But the exports increased 104-fold during the 1979-88 period at an average annual growth rate of 52 percent, to reach U.S.$2,220 million in 1988 (see Table 13.1 and Figure 13.1), accounting for 4 percent of Taiwan's total exports for the year. On the other hand, Chinese-made products reexported through Hong Kong to Taiwan (hereafter exports of China to Taiwan or imports of Taiwan from China) were worth only U.S.$55.8 million in 1979 but increased ninefold during the 1979-88 period at an average annual growth rate of 24 percent, to reach U.S.$470 million in 1988, accounting for about 1 percent of Taiwan's total imports for the year. The Taiwan-China two-way trade balance, which has been in favor of Taiwan since 1980, amounted to U.S.$1.7 billion in 1988, making Taiwan the fourth largest source of China's trade deficit (following the United States, Japan, and West Germany, which recorded trade surpluses of U.S.$3.25 billion, U.S.$3.13 billion, and U.S.$1.95 billion, respectively). China's trade deficit with Taiwan is expected to top U.S.$2.2-2.4 billion in 1989. Across-the-strait trade kept growing in 1989, though somewhat moderated as a result of the June 4 event. It is estimated that with Taiwan's export growth to China declining from 81 percent in 1988 to around 30 percent, and its import growth declining from 64 Indirect Trade between Taiwan and Mainland China, 1978-89
|
Taiwanese exports to China |
Growth rate of China's imports to the world |
Chinese exports to Taiwan |
Growth rate of China's exports from the world |
Surplus of Taiwan-China two-wav trade |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Value |
Growth rate |
Value |
Growth rate |
Value * |
Growth rate |
|||
|
1978 |
51 |
— |
41.13 |
46,725 |
— |
19.97 |
-46,674 |
— |
|
1979 |
21,291 |
41,393.10 |
40.30 |
55,800 |
19.42 |
36.80 |
-34,509 |
— |
|
1980 |
242,244 |
1,037.80 |
27.70 |
78,485 |
40.65 |
32.90 |
163,759 |
— |
|
1981 |
390,186 |
61.07 |
8.20 |
76,272 |
-2.82 |
19.20 |
313,914 |
91.69 |
|
1982 |
208,159 |
-46.65 |
-12.40 |
89,929 |
17.90 |
1.50 |
118,230 |
-62.34 |
|
1983 |
168,643 |
-18.98 |
13.00 |
96,017 |
6.77 |
1.30 |
72,626 |
-38.57 |
|
1984 |
425,618 |
152.38 |
24.00 |
127,738 |
33.04 |
12.60 |
297,880 |
310.16 |
|
1985 |
987,977 |
132.13 |
62.00 |
116,035 |
-9.16 |
10.30 |
871,942 |
192.72 |
|
1986 |
811,024 |
-17.91 |
1.20 |
144,168 |
24.25 |
14.10 |
666,856 |
-23.52 |
|
1987 |
1,226,839 |
51.27 |
— |
289,010 |
100.47 |
25.70 |
937,829 |
40.63 |
|
1988 |
2,219,454 |
80.91 |
27.30 |
473,838 |
63.95 |
20.40 |
1,745,616 |
86.13 |
|
1989 |
2,896,500 |
29.18 |
7.01 |
586,900 |
22.60 |
10.46 |
2,309,600 |
32.31 |
Sources: Data for across-the-strait trade via Hong Kong are calculated from Statistics Bureau of the Hong Kong Government, Re-export by All Countries of Origin by Importing Countries by Items (Hong Kong: Statistics Bureau of the Hong Kong government, various issues).
Data for China's total trade are calculated from International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 1989). Both exports and imports are based on FOB, and are converted by principle exchange rate (period average) from International Financial Statistics.
Notes: Value is in U.S.$1,000. Growth rate is in percent.
“—” denotes balance in favor of China; other numbers in column represent balance in favor of Taiwan.
Indirect Trade between Taiwan and Mainland China, 1978-89 https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781315287850/d6129183-1e90-4755-a8b9-55f97c9b1dfd/content/fig13_1_B.tif" xmlns:xlink="https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/> Source: Calculated from data in Table 13.1. percent to 25 percent this year, the two-way trade balance will reach U.S.$3.5 billion in 1989.