ABSTRACT
In recent years attempts to analyze and predict political and social trends in the PRC have yielded wildly divergent scenarios. In what might be termed the "stability" scenario, it is noted that China has been much more successful than Russia or Eastern European countries in implementing market reforms while simultaneously raising living standards. The general improvements in people's lives and the many new opportunities for enrichment available are seen as leading to acceptance of the political status quo, or even gratitude. When combined with the political lessons of the 1989 crackdown, these features of the Chinese situation are said to lead most Chinese to have little interest in politics or inclination to take risks to press for political changes. As long as China's leaders remain unified and can keep the engine of economic growth going, according to this scenario, they should be able to maintain the status quo and keep social tensions and conflicts under control.
