ABSTRACT
Human pressures on the environment have their most apparent manifestation in the visible transformation of the Earth’s surface. Over the last 50 to 100 hundred years, the most important factor in the change in terrestrial ecosystems has been land cover conversion [1,2], and this trend is likely to continue in the future [3]. Land use/land cover (LULC) maps offer a way to document and quantify these changes [4]. Technological improvements over the last several decades have enhanced LULC maps’ ability to observe the outcomes of social and ecological processes on the landscape [5]. Projecting LULC patterns into the future can be a useful exercise for evaluating how these processes change and identifying potential consequences. Creating a series of possibilities given the available information can provide insights for spatial planning. These possibilities or
scenarios provide a useful way to sketch out the future with a level of plausibility “while explicitly incorporating relevant science, societal expectations, and internally consistent assumptions about major drivers, relationships, and constraints” [6]. LULC change scenarios are important, because these can be used to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of decisions or policy shifts [7,8].
