ABSTRACT

This chapter dissects the scenario concept and examines the types and considerations that guide its creation. From this discussion, the lingering uncertainties that punctuate the future and the manner by which uncertainty may be managed in the assessment of environmental sustainability are explored. A scenario, particularly in the context of future research, may be dened as an exploration of an alternative future. Built on this simple explanation is the notion of a scenario as the hypothetical sequence of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision points. The scenario provides some insight into how the future may develop, and encourages discussion and deliberation which stimulate imaginative thinking. The scenario also provides direction on how to respond to those needs and encourages decision-makers to not only think beyond the obvious but to challenge convention and experiment.