ABSTRACT
This chapter describes how public health epidemiologists try to measure and monitor the patterns and prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) cases and deaths. It focuses on methods and models for the projection of HIV/AIDS numbers and describes how EPIMODEL, a simple computer model, is used for estimation and short-term projection of AIDS cases and deaths. The chapter describes the methods for estimating HIV prevalence and even though the accuracy of HIV prevalence estimates can be questioned, these estimates are still far more reliable than most reported AIDS case data. It provides a detailed description of the method used by World Health Organization (WHO)/UNAEDS to estimate annual HIV incidence and AIDS deaths. The greatest value of such complex mathematical models may be to test hypotheses and to help in understanding the dynamic interrelationships between important biologic and behavioral variables rather than for estimation and projection of HIV/AIDS prevalence.
