ABSTRACT
Uganda's success had been astonishing. A simple, home-grown pro gram cut the HIV prevalence by two-thirds, from 15 percent to 5 per cent. A tiny, impoverished African nation reeling from decades of cruelty had notched one of the greatest public-health achievements in history. And then, as I predicted in my 2003 book, Rethinking AIDS Prevention, the disease started crawling back. The dive in measures of HIV prevalence ended around 2004, and the DHS in 2005 showed it to be 6.7 percent, considerably higher than previously estimated. Other data suggested a rise in new infections. An ongoing study in the Rakai district revealed that HIV incidence started trending upward in 2003. Another study, based on data from 203,000 volun tary counseling and testing (VCT) clients examined between 1993 and 2003, found that annual HIV incidence per 100 uninfected per sons increased from 0.9 in 1993 to 2.3 in 2003.
