ABSTRACT
Climate change will contribute to increased migration in the future, or so the common view goes among researchers and policy makers. The droughts during the 1970s and 1980s may have initiated or at least intensified migration, but the reasons that perpetuate it may be different. The chapter shows how social transformation processes initiated by the success of previous migrants, population growth, urbanisation, crises and education affect the impact of environmental stress on people’s livelihoods and migration. Particularly, young and well-educated people are increasingly reluctant to stay in the rural areas to work in agriculture, which makes them less vulnerable to environmental stress. While some social transformation processes may increase the need to migrate, others may lead to decreased vulnerability to environmental stress and reduce the impact of climate change on migration, despite worsening climate conditions.
