ABSTRACT
Rejecting the idea of an equilibrium business cycle, this book, originally published in 1927, studies those industrial fluctuations which extend over short spans of years: cyclical fluctuations. The causes of these cycles are discussed and the consequences which result and way in which to mitigate these consequences with regard to social well-being are examined. Although Pigou’s approach went out of fashion following Keynes, it is similar in spirit to much of the late twentieth-century work stimulated by real business cycle theory.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
part |2 pages
PART
chapter I|2 pages
That the
that at the outset a conception as precise as possible it is that we wish to do. it is easy to see, without glancing at deeper
chapter |2 pages
that is actually engaged
that records of production cannot serve it at work, so that, in a community where
chapter |1 pages
it themselves, to increase the volume of the that this must necessarily affect the expectations if the demand of industrialists for if this demand has an elasticity equal to unity, the
it-to In other words, it is -for it might be
chapter |1 pages
it is sufficient to note it were sort; while they may also
it as a curve beneath that of the
chapter |3 pages
it may be presumed that the demand for if other that" only
In actual life, however, an enhancement in the that that accompanies transfers-that were discussed in the preceding section.
chapter |1 pages
that we shall not find demands of anything approximating
that the associated 4looth part, or per cent, in case 1; loth activity in that the method of analysis just de- it is valid, enable us to assign limits to the
chapter |3 pages
it has been calculated by Professor King (for 1910) that, of if the
that is consumed by agriculturalists be it be assumed that the demand for agricultural 6! per or 31 per cent the
chapter |2 pages
it is boots that wheat-makers it is well to clear out of the way a
it into it seems probable that we should it in inferring that the direct effects of the
chapter |5 pages
Band C and D, which used to sell to it, will not be able
point-in so far as A is dealing with B, A's prosperity,
chapter |9 pages
it matter much if it
that he has no adequate means times-an under-estimate that inevitably calls new
chapter VII|2 pages
THE MUTUAL GENERATION OF ERRORS OF OPTIMISM AND ERRORS OF PESSIMISM
gestation- it varies greatly. A boom involves, as it
chapter |1 pages
it necessary to raise floating loans, prudence requires that
that they are practically forced, to add
chapter |1 pages
it would have been had loans been made that institution especially must lend freely, at the Bank of England
that the self-interest of the banks, looked at broadly In other words, bank loans in these circum- that at this rate these advances It may, there-
chapter |2 pages
that difficult subject it here In this chapter, therefore,
that bring about changes in the supply schedule of In fact, however, the industrial life of all
chapter |1 pages
that the origin of industrial fluctuations is not always, or if in
In depressions in like
chapter |1 pages
that industry is
that is to say, from what it would otherwise have been- it is plainly essential to envisage clearly what " otherwise" that they would
chapter |3 pages
that an important portion of the reactions which
at the same time, part of their store of money in buying things and
chapter |3 pages
that the banking system receives, let us say, one million
that not" created" but that it is open to Professor Cannan
chapter |1 pages
that can be done is, I think, this. For 1892 and later years it is that the deposits of the private banks bore the same
that the last column of that table if total
chapter |1 pages
it results from a credit creation of 25 millions
that in that of the other, because in it the sudden declen-
chapter XIV|2 pages
CHAPTER XIV
In the pages that follow I principle-I shall assume that In the at a later stage, that the act of credit at all the productivity of industry
chapter |2 pages
at a constant rate
that it must be raised much more than in proportion that month, has been made
chapter |2 pages
that they achieve their end
"proper" response--the response that, given the made-is an increase
chapter |2 pages
it is not improper, in the light of them, to
it should be observed, he himself frankly recognises
chapter |4 pages
sense-the
that value was always the same, we could infer the that occur in Vi from records of the changes in V it is to be expected that the number of times that
chapter |2 pages
it will be made
it will be made at some rate inter- at fixed interest; and, when prices are falling, they are
chapter |3 pages
In either event, and this is the point I am concerned to that dealers suffer is not essentially due
it must be clearly understood, transferences connected
chapter XVII|1 pages
THE REFLEX INFLUENCE OF PRICE MOVEMENTS ON THE EXPECTATIONS OF BUSINESS MEN
that
chapter |3 pages
forecasts-
at all. that no investor of capital takes account of the possibility that his money may be worth less to him when he gets it back Hence, when prices are rising, the business at the expense of capitalists
chapter |4 pages
it paid out for them some months ago, and if it not them and
at their original cost, but it is possible to charge them at the at the time they are used, and thus
chapter |1 pages
at work, consequent upon
at work. if and it does not permit, variations in the length of the working
chapter |2 pages
IN WAGE-RATES 179 In the bulk of modern industry, at work. In wage In bad times, therefore, when It is true that this gain is, in general, available only
at the it from acting as a real and powerful stimulus to
chapter |2 pages
it would not matter whether labour were abso-
it falls least may be that this happens to some extent in "The capital-
chapter |1 pages
that Mr. Hawtrey is thinking
that the general level of prices is going to rise, that the price of his own particular
part |1 pages
Part II.
part |2 pages
PART
chapter |1 pages
that they cannot be foretold, and that attaches to unemployment in the
it becomes what I may call a gambler's
chapter |1 pages
at once from this to the inference that,
it in at 30s., both for abnormally large and
chapter |1 pages
it increases the numbers employed from 533,333 to
that con- it does: the rate is adapted that level when times cease to be normal: if all
chapter |3 pages
"Let that
at any time, state how much money is required to it declared in 1892 that 23s. had only the same purchasing it could, at the option of those
chapter |3 pages
that do not raise prices; and that, if their expecta-
it would require bankers to make larger loans
chapter |3 pages
that neither of them can touch loans already con-
that different classes of bushless people will be affected in that there are two men
chapter |1 pages
that in
it is these banks that are that such rationing as has to be done should be done by its it adopts a policy of rationing,
chapter |1 pages
it alters its discount rate, by that very fact compel at its command by which it it so desires. If it
it has it in reducing rates. Per contra, if it to
chapter |3 pages
at the
In booms the joint-stock banks, feeling optimistic like every- it has been written of the United States: "When
chapter |10 pages
it cannot carryon this
disturbance- that is less liable than gold if the it would probably be subject to smaller changes
chapter |1 pages
it might pay the Reichsbank to issue notes while a boom
that Parliament that any profit derived from
chapter |1 pages
it is often thought to be a great advantage.
it can always at a price, to the shoulders of exchange at a
chapter |5 pages
"think in gold" leads them to resist reductions
it and the enlarged fluctuations of it leads are anti-social, and ought at all for variations in real wages
chapter |1 pages
it is taken on that it is sometimes desirable
that incurred by the one man acting alone. Against that the men who paint their
chapter XII|4 pages
CHAPTER XII
"The reasons for this are it tends to diminish. In order to meet the resultant
chapter |4 pages
do; and to the great develop- that the cyclical depressions of the last
-4 -12 -20 -12 In public expenditure we may perhaps take wages to be
chapter |1 pages
it is a matter of some interest to deter-
that industry has an elasticity equal to it has an elasticity greater at a wage of 21i-
chapter |4 pages
that an appreciable advantage can be gained by cutting down that
it is partly because
chapter |1 pages
that a full understanding of their true interests it would reduce the variability of the representative it acts pro tanto in the same way. In real that those who are fortunate at at that time are unfortunate. This device taken by itself is it makes no provision against the danger at the same time. But, when it is combined it can only do this at the cost of withholding
In either event the steadying cause is saving and
chapter |3 pages
that occur in his individual In any group of persons, however, whose individual
that is re- that "mutuality" and the device
chapter |1 pages
but it is obviously unsatis- lead-as, indeed, in Norway it has led "The great bulk of those In Strassburg the hope of In this respect compulsory it to that no workman shall receive unem- it is plain that, though compulsion does not mean that compulsion is, in this matter,
it is immensely less effective than compulsion; and that a bounty enables workmen less
