ABSTRACT
the yield, after allowance has been made for secular trend, is not liable to vary from the mean by more than 10 per cent in either direction, i.e. 20 per cent in the aggregate. Now, it has been calculated by Professor King (for 1910) that, of the national value product of the United States, about 22 per cent belongs to agriculture.! Even then. if the portion of agricultural produce that is consumed by agriculturalists be ignored, and if it be assumed that the demand for agricultural produce is infinitely elastic, the maximum possible range of industrial fluctuations due to crop variations is tiths of 20 per cent, i.e. 6! per cent, or 31 per cent on either side of the mean. Since it is certain that, with commodities that are not perishable, the supplies coming to sale will vary considerably less than those produced-more being held for stock in good than in bad years-we may safely cut this figure down at the very least to 6 per cent, or 3 per cent on each side of the mean.
