"There is, of course,

plants can take advantage, and therefore the greater becomes the inducement to invest in new equipment ".1 Advance thus takes place all along the line. "There is, of course, no formal agreement between the different trades to begin again to work full time, and so make a market for each other's wares. But the revival of industry comes about through the gradual and often simultaneous growth of confidence among various trades." 2 The first-comers make an addition to industrial energy that is really needed to correct the error that has hitherto prevailed. Perhaps those who come in and expand their business directly after the beginnings of revival are also in this class. The first year or two, say, is taken up with a wholly justified expansion. But, after the first year or two, further expansion represents, not a correction of the past error, but the creation of a new one, and, thereafter, any further expansion represents a growth of unjustified optimism. The turn of the tide from ebb to flow is a slow and gradual process. Cautiously and hesitatingly the first steps on the return journey towards the correct route are taken; some time elapses before that route is reached; when it is reached it is passed, and a new false track on the opposite side is entered upon, down which industry runs at an accelerating pace, until once more the presence of an error of optimism is revealed and, on revelation, destroyed. An error of pessimism is then again generated in the way we have described, and presently, when it in turn has died, a new wave of optimism begins to gather on the same pattern as before.