ABSTRACT
This chapter presents an analysis of the mediation opportunities that evolved within the context of the protracted conflict between India and Pakistan in the time period 1947-2002. Like the Egyptian-Israeli case presented in Chapter 4, the analysis is guided by the rationale of the Rational Model of Mediation (RMM). For each mediation opportunity, I begin with a brief description of the underlying crisis. Then, guided by the tenets of the RMM, I present an analysis of the prospects for mediation of the crisis from the parties’ perspectives, followed by the model’s prediction of whether a mediation process would be expected to take place and the mediation strategy or strategies needed to resolve the crisis. Within this context, the perceptions of the rivals regarding the value of mediation as opposed to other alternatives available to them are examined, as well as the rivals’ perceptions of the credibility of potential mediators and third parties’ interest in serving as mediators and their expected mediation costs. Each mediation opportunity analysis concludes with an examination of what took place in reality with respect to mediation, while highlighting when the actors’ behavior was consisted with or diverged from the models’ predictions and why.
