ABSTRACT
The discussion thus far has been from a theoretical standpoint. Yet, without empirical evaluation, we do not know how relevant the model is for the real world. Therefore, guided by the theoretical framework given in the Rational Model of Mediation, in this chapter I test the propositions deductively derived from the RMM statistically against the MIDMED data set of conflicts and mediation attempts for the period 1945-2001.1 The data set includes 1,853 militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) that capture three types of events: (1) dispute years in which mediation took place, (2) dispute years in which mediation did not take place and (3) mediation attempts that took place in interdispute years. In 582 of these 1,853 disputes some type of mediation process took place. In 270 of the 582 disputes that involved a third party, the third parties involved were state actors, for which credibility scores were calculated.
